feat: 初始提交 - 科创企业特有风险的识别与管理 (数智风控系统)

2026-08-14 08:21:26 +08:00
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+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""
+动态保险定价模型
+基于精算原理，结合六维风险评分实现"千企千面"费率计算
+"""
+import logging
+import sys
+import os
+
+# 将项目根目录添加到 Python 路径
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from config import INSURANCE_PRODUCTS
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+# 行业风险系数
+INDUSTRY_RISK_FACTORS = {
+    "芯片": 1.35,      # 地缘风险+技术迭代双高
+    "AI": 1.30,         # 合规风险+技术竞争
+    "软件": 1.05,       # 相对成熟
+    "医疗器械": 0.95,   # 技术壁垒高但风险较稳
+    "新能源": 1.15,     # 技术路线之争+贸易摩擦
+    "消费电子": 1.10,   # 供应链风险
+}
+
+# 企业规模折扣（大企业风险分散能力更强）
+SCALE_DISCOUNT = {
+    "超大型": 0.85,   # 营收 > 500亿
+    "大型": 0.90,     # 100-500亿
+    "中型": 1.00,     # 10-100亿
+    "小型": 1.15,     # 1-10亿
+    "微型": 1.30,     # < 1亿
+}
+
+
+def get_enterprise_scale(revenue: float) -> str:
+    """根据营收判断企业规模"""
+    if revenue >= 50_000_000_000:
+        return "超大型"
+    elif revenue >= 10_000_000_000:
+        return "大型"
+    elif revenue >= 1_000_000_000:
+        return "中型"
+    elif revenue >= 100_000_000:
+        return "小型"
+    return "微型"
+
+
+def calculate_premium(
+    product_key: str,
+    comprehensive_risk_score: int,
+    six_dimension_scores: dict,
+    sector: str = "",
+    revenue: float = 0,
+) -> dict:
+    """
+    动态费率计算器
+
+    定价公式：
+    实际保费 = 基础保费 × 风险系数 × 行业调整 × 规模折扣
+
+    风险系数由综合评分决定（分段线性）：
+    - [0, 30)  → 0.7 ~ 0.9（优质折扣）
+    - [30, 50) → 0.9 ~ 1.2（标准浮动）
+    - [50, 70) → 1.2 ~ 1.8（风险上浮）
+    - [70, 90) → 1.8 ~ 2.5（惩罚性费率）
+    - [90,100] → 拒保或附加极高免赔额
+    """
+    product = INSURANCE_PRODUCTS.get(product_key)
+    if not product:
+        return {"error": f"未知保险产品: {product_key}"}
+
+    base_premium = product["base_premium"]
+    base_coverage = product["base_coverage"]
+
+    # 1. 计算风险系数
+    risk_multiplier = _calculate_risk_multiplier(comprehensive_risk_score)
+
+    # 2. 行业调整系数
+    industry_factor = INDUSTRY_RISK_FACTORS.get(sector, 1.0)
+
+    # 3. 规模折扣
+    scale = get_enterprise_scale(revenue)
+    scale_factor = SCALE_DISCOUNT[scale]
+
+    # 4. 特定险种的维度调整
+    dimension_adjustment = _get_dimension_adjustment(product_key, six_dimension_scores)
+
+    # 5. 最终保费
+    final_premium = base_premium * risk_multiplier * industry_factor * scale_factor * dimension_adjustment
+
+    # 6. 核保条件
+    deductible_rate = _calculate_deductible(comprehensive_risk_score)
+    adjusted_coverage = base_coverage * (1.0 if comprehensive_risk_score < 70 else 0.7)
+
+    return {
+        "product_name": product["name"],
+        "product_key": product_key,
+        "base_premium": base_premium,
+        "base_coverage": base_coverage,
+        "risk_multiplier": round(risk_multiplier, 3),
+        "industry_factor": round(industry_factor, 3),
+        "scale_factor": round(scale_factor, 3),
+        "scale_label": scale,
+        "dimension_adjustment": round(dimension_adjustment, 3),
+        "final_premium": round(final_premium, 2),
+        "adjusted_coverage": round(adjusted_coverage, 2),
+        "deductible_rate": round(deductible_rate, 3),
+        "deductible_amount": round(adjusted_coverage * deductible_rate, 2),
+        "comprehensive_risk_score": comprehensive_risk_score,
+        "is_insurable": comprehensive_risk_score < 90,
+        "pricing_breakdown": (
+            f"¥{base_premium:,.0f} × {risk_multiplier:.2f}(风险) "
+            f"× {industry_factor:.2f}(行业) × {scale_factor:.2f}(规模) "
+            f"× {dimension_adjustment:.2f}(维度) = ¥{final_premium:,.0f}"
+        ),
+    }
+
+
+def _calculate_risk_multiplier(score: int) -> float:
+    """分段线性风险系数计算"""
+    if score < 30:
+        return 0.7 + (score / 30) * 0.2       # 0.7 ~ 0.9
+    elif score < 50:
+        return 0.9 + ((score - 30) / 20) * 0.3  # 0.9 ~ 1.2
+    elif score < 70:
+        return 1.2 + ((score - 50) / 20) * 0.6  # 1.2 ~ 1.8
+    elif score < 90:
+        return 1.8 + ((score - 70) / 20) * 0.7  # 1.8 ~ 2.5
+    else:
+        return 3.0  # 拒保级别
+
+
+def _get_dimension_adjustment(product_key: str, scores: dict) -> float:
+    """针对特定险种，根据相关维度得分进行微调"""
+    if product_key == "ip_lawsuit":
+        # 知识产权被诉险：重点看技术路线和专利
+        tech_score = scores.get("tech_disruption", 50)
+        return 0.8 + (tech_score / 100) * 0.4  # 0.8 ~ 1.2
+
+    elif product_key == "exec_departure":
+        # 高管离职险：重点看人员流失风险
+        talent_score = scores.get("talent_loss", 50)
+        return 0.7 + (talent_score / 100) * 0.6  # 0.7 ~ 1.3
+
+    elif product_key == "data_compliance":
+        # 数据合规险：重点看合规风险
+        compliance_score = scores.get("algo_compliance", 50)
+        return 0.8 + (compliance_score / 100) * 0.4  # 0.8 ~ 1.2
+
+    return 1.0
+
+
+def _calculate_deductible(score: int) -> float:
+    """计算免赔率"""
+    if score < 30:
+        return 0.05   # 5%
+    elif score < 50:
+        return 0.10   # 10%
+    elif score < 70:
+        return 0.15   # 15%
+    elif score < 90:
+        return 0.25   # 25%
+    else:
+        return 0.50   # 50%（惩罚性高免赔）
+
+
+def calculate_all_products(
+    comprehensive_risk_score: int,
+    six_dimension_scores: dict,
+    sector: str = "",
+    revenue: float = 0,
+) -> list:
+    """计算所有险种的保费"""
+    results = []
+    for product_key in INSURANCE_PRODUCTS:
+        result = calculate_premium(
+            product_key, comprehensive_risk_score,
+            six_dimension_scores, sector, revenue,
+        )
+        results.append(result)
+    return results